We truly are living in historic times—times when the very nature of money is shifting before our eyes. As David Stockman writes in “Free Market Money: The Antidote,” “money has become entirely a matter of digital ledger entries and a derivative of private credit.” The traditional role of the Federal Reserve, rooted in supplying elastic currency against real commercial receivables, has been dismantled. Stockman argues, “The American economy no longer needs a central bank to print ‘money’ in either paper or digital form… The free market can both make the credit and price it.” This is more than theory—it’s a turning point in how our financial system operates.

We live in an era where the headlines themselves serve as warnings. The war in Ukraine shows no sign of resolution, with devastating human and economic consequences spreading far beyond its borders. At the same time, the conflict in Gaza has created destruction and despair that weighs heavily on global stability. These crises remind us that the world remains a dangerous place, one where geopolitical shocks can ripple suddenly through markets.

Most people know Larry Fink as the CEO of BlackRock, the world’s largest asset manager with over $9 trillion under management. What many don’t realize is that Fink is more than a powerful Wall Street executive—he is co-chair of the World Economic Forum (WEF), one of the most influential yet unelected organizations in the world. That role places him at the center of an agenda that should deeply concern investors, retirees, and citizens alike.

America’s “independent” Federal Reserve loves to act like it’s the grown-up in the room, keeping the economy steady. In reality, it’s more like a stage magician—printing money out of thin air and sprinkling it over Wall Street. The result? Out-of-this-world market valuations that look impressive on paper but have no foundation in reality. Let’s call them what they are: fake wealth. And fake wealth never lasts.

In every market cycle, there’s a moment when optimism peaks, valuations stretch beyond reason, and investors begin to believe that “this time is different.” We’re living in that moment now.

Over the last decade, stock prices have been propelled upward not just by innovation or productivity, but by an unprecedented flood of cheap money, aggressive speculation, and central bank intervention. While these forces have supported markets, they’ve also created dangerous distortions. And when distortions unwind, they tend to do so violently.

A friend recently shared this lament about stopping by his neighborhood Dairy Queen for a banana split. He had looked forward to the visit because, when he was a kid, a banana split was the ultimate summer treat — a big glass boat filled with vanilla, chocolate and strawberry ice‑cream scoops, a fresh banana, fruity syrups, whipped cream and the obligatory cherries on top. It was indulgent but inexpensive, just a quarter at the lunch counter or ice‑cream parlor.

In 1950s Woolworth’s stores, a regular banana split cost 25 cents and some parlors sold the same treat for 10 cents in 1904. Even in 1963, a banana split at Farrell’s Ice Cream Parlour cost 75 cents and did not cross the $2 mark until 1979.

I’ve been thinking a lot about the difficult crossroads our country finds itself at. There’s no denying the numbers are mind‑blowing: debt spiraling upward, obligations growing faster than we can pay, and the consequences of that becoming increasingly visible.  

I’ve been following the housing market closely, and what’s crystal clear is that simply pushing interest rates down—even to rock‑bottom levels—won’t solve the affordability crisis. Just recently, the 10‑year Treasury yield jumped above 4.49%, reacting sharply to a fresh spike in CPI inflation—marking its highest climb in five months. That’s bad news for anyone hoping for a dramatic drop in mortgage rates.

After all, 30‑year mortgage rates track the 10‑year yield. Historically, we've seen borrowings near 3% in mid‑2021 balloon past 7% by late 2023—and they've stayed stubbornly above 6% since. Those double‑figure home prices combine with higher borrowing costs to push housing out of reach for many.

In recent remarks that should concern anyone keeping a close watch on inflation and economic policy, Raphael Bostic, President of the Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, issued a clear warning: the impact of tariffs could be far more persistent than previously thought. While tariffs have often been seen as temporary policy tools with discrete, short-term inflationary effects, Bostic's message points to a more drawn-out and insidious process—one that could further complicate the Federal Reserve's already delicate balancing act.

Government projections point to massive future deficits, soaring interest expenses, and an ever-growing debt burden. The numbers are publicly available, but few are paying attention to the implications. With demand for government debt uncertain and political leaders showing no appetite for fiscal restraint, policymakers will likely respond the only way they can—by suppressing real interest rates and allowing the currency to weaken.

This tactic creates a short-term boost. Lower rates make borrowing cheaper, stimulating economic activity and pushing up asset prices. A weaker currency helps exports and makes foreign debt easier to repay in nominal terms. At first glance, these may seem like policy victories.

In the early 20th century, the Russian Empire fell—not only because of war or revolution, but because of misplaced trust. At the center of this collapse was a mystic named Grigori Rasputin, whose influence over the royal family grew quietly, dangerously, and fatally.

He wasn’t elected. He wasn’t trained. He wasn’t even well understood. But he was believed.

He promised healing to the Tsar’s gravely ill son. He delivered calm when the empire trembled. And he gave the illusion of control in a world spinning out of it. Rasputin became indispensable—not because he was effective, but because he made people feel safe.

The Federal Reserve has sent ripples through the financial world with its latest projections, signaling a tougher road ahead for the U.S. economy. According to a recent report from Breitbart News, Fed officials now anticipate higher interest rates and persistent inflation in 2025, a stark shift from earlier expectations. Here’s a breakdown of what this means and why it matters.

It’s no secret that America’s monetary policy is once again becoming political theater. But this time, the stakes feel even higher. I’ve said before—and will keep saying—that any President will find themselves in a tug-of-war with the Federal Reserve over interest rates. What we’re seeing now isn’t just a policy disagreement. It’s a brewing battle between competing visions for America’s economy, one rooted in market intervention and another in monetary restraint.

Over the last decade, Ray Dalio—billionaire founder of Bridgewater Associates and one of the most successful investors in modern history—has not been shy about sharing his concerns. His warnings have grown louder in recent years, pointing to a convergence of systemic risks that could shape the global economy for decades.

At Bailey Financial Services, we believe these warnings should not be taken lightly. Dalio has an impressive track record of spotting long-term trends before they become front-page news. And if he’s right again, the months and years ahead could require a fundamental rethinking of portfolio risk.

For months now, markets have seemed strangely buoyant. Despite two wars, rising debt levels, sticky inflation, and the most aggressive interest rate tightening cycle in 40 years, equities continue to trade near all-time highs. But not everyone is convinced the storm has passed — and few voices carry more weight than Jamie Dimon, the long-time CEO of JPMorgan Chase.

Dimon is no stranger to tough calls. He’s been at the helm of one of the world’s largest banks through multiple crises — including the Great Financial Crisis of 2008. And in recent weeks, he’s become more vocal about the gathering risks that, in his view, are not being fully appreciated by the markets. His message is clear: a recession remains very possible, and current conditions warrant caution.

Wars, by their very nature, disrupt the movement of goods across borders. Conflict zones become inaccessible. Ports are blocked, shipping lanes become battlegrounds, and airspace can be restricted or shut entirely. When Russia invaded Ukraine, for example, Black Sea ports were closed, grain exports halted, and ripple effects were felt from Europe to Africa. Wars in the Middle East often tighten oil supply, causing crude prices to surge—even when the fighting occurs thousands of miles from a consumer’s gas pump.

In a striking alignment, President Donald Trump, Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.), and tech billionaire Elon Musk have united in advocating for the elimination of the U.S. debt ceiling, a statutory cap on federal borrowing that has long been a lightning rod for fiscal debates.

This unexpected coalition—bridging a conservative Republican, a progressive Democrat, and a libertarian-leaning entrepreneur—has sparked intense discussion about the debt ceiling’s role, its economic risks, and the prospects for bipartisan reform.

In a world saturated with spin, the government’s latest economic report is another reminder that the truth often lies between the lines. The U.S. Commerce Department just released its second estimate for first-quarter GDP growth—and it’s not the glowing recovery story Wall Street would like you to believe. Real GDP growth was revised up slightly to a sluggish 1.3%, while inflation-adjusted consumer spending actually declined. Let’s be clear: this isn’t growth. It’s stagnation dressed up with decimal points.

Stockman scrutinizes the GOP's "One Big Beautiful Bill," which aims to extend the 2017 Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA). He argues that this extension would primarily benefit the top 5% of earners, who already contribute 61% of federal income tax revenues, while adding approximately $5 trillion to the national debt. He challenges the notion that these tax cuts will stimulate sufficient economic growth to offset their cost, labeling the "grow your way out" strategy as a flawed and historically unproven theory.

Inflation is a term that often sparks heated debates, conjuring images of rising prices, shrinking savings, and economic uncertainty. In a thought-provoking article titled "Inflation: The Real Story" from Armstrong Economics, Martin Armstrong dives into the complexities of inflation, challenging mainstream narratives and shedding light on its deeper causes and consequences. This blog post explores the key insights from the article, breaking down its core arguments and offering a fresh perspective on an issue that affects us all.