Five dimensions of market and economic conditions, brought into one view. The purpose is to help you examine how prepared your retirement plan is for a difficult market.
A high reading reflects stretched conditions under this framework. It cannot tell us when markets will turn, how far they might fall, or what your portfolio will lose.
Explore the five pillarsThese questions are useful at any reading. The answers should reflect your spending needs, income, time horizon, and willingness to accept losses.
The Altitude Indicator combines five areas of concern into a single score. It is a framework for discussing exposure and preparedness, not a measurement of the distance to a market bottom.
The aviation metaphor is intentional: an instrument helps put conditions in context. The number should prompt questions about reserves, concentration, and spending—not stand in for a household’s complete financial plan.
Elevated valuations and other risks can persist while markets rise. Defensive choices have tradeoffs too, including missed growth and inflation risk. A useful plan considers both the cost of a decline and the cost of preparing for one.
September 2026 published snapshot. Each pillar receives a score out of 100 and a weight in the composite. The table below shows exactly how those five published scores combine; it does not independently validate the underlying inputs.
September 2026 snapshot · each score is out of 100.
| Pillar | Score | Weight | Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|
| Valuation | 98 | 30% | 29.40 |
| Sovereign credit | 98 | 20% | 19.60 |
| Rates and credit | 80 | 20% | 16.00 |
| Concentration | 97 | 15% | 14.55 |
| Volatility and events | 73 | 15% | 10.95 |
90.50 weighted points → 91 on the dial
Display bands: Low <25 · Moderate 25–<50 · Elevated 50–<70 · High 70–<85 · Extreme 85–100. These boundaries are author-defined.
This reconciles the published pillar scores with the dial. The underlying observation dates and complete percentile calculations are not included here, so the scores cannot yet be independently reproduced from this page. A verified year-over-year comparison is not presented.
The stated design ranks inputs against their histories: a thirty-year window for market series and the available historical record for fiscal series. Inputs are then averaged within each pillar and combined using the published weights.
A historical percentile depends on the observation date, sampling frequency, comparison window, and whether higher or lower values are treated as greater risk. The composite score is not itself a percentile of future market losses.
The inputs, scoring choices, weights, and category boundaries reflect the author's judgment. The source list identifies relevant datasets; a fully reproducible calculation also requires the dated observations and complete scoring rules.
The dial shows the published September 2026 snapshot. This page is manually maintained, not a live feed. Inputs have different release dates and may be revised; the month on the dial does not mean every underlying observation is from that month.
The purpose of knowing your altitude is to prepare while you still have choices.
I built this because I believe the conditions in front of us are more stretched than anything I have seen in my working life, and because I think the reckoning, when it comes, will be larger than 2008. I have written three books circling that conviction and I am not going to pretend to a neutrality I do not have.
I will not put a date on a market adjustment. My outlook is a judgment, and I could be wrong. The indicator makes my areas of concern visible; it should support a conversation about preparation rather than substitute for individual advice.
If markets rise while the reading stays high, the score still describes this framework's assessment of conditions. That would not prove the framework useful. Its assumptions and practical value should remain open to review.
What I want to improve is readiness: a written response to a decline, realistic return assumptions, and a clear view of employer exposure. Those are concrete planning questions we can address without agreeing on exactly what happens next.
Bring your holdings and retirement income picture. We can review reserves, employer exposure, and the assumptions your plan relies on.
Bailey Financial Services, Inc. is a state-registered investment adviser. Registration does not imply a certain level of skill or training. This page is for educational purposes only and is not investment, tax, or legal advice, nor an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any security. Nothing here is individualised to any person's circumstances.
The Altitude Indicator is a proprietary composite constructed by Wilder Bailey. The selection of inputs, the choice of historical windows and the weighting of the five pillars are the author's own judgment, not an industry standard, and reasonable practitioners would construct it differently and arrive at different readings. The indicator is new and has no live track record; any historical values shown are back-calculated using inputs selected with knowledge of subsequent market history, which is a recognised source of bias.
The indicator does not estimate a crash probability, expected loss, or market timing. It is not a recommendation to buy, sell, hold, or alter an allocation. Elevated readings can coexist with rising markets, and changes made in response can create costs and risks.
Underlying figures are drawn from third-party sources believed reliable but not independently verified, and are subject to revision. Some component series are reported quarterly and may lag the page by up to one quarter. Past performance is not indicative of future results.
References to third parties, publications, index providers and data sources are for identification and educational context only. They do not imply affiliation with, sponsorship by, or endorsement from any of them. Bailey Financial Services, Inc. is not affiliated with Southern Company, Georgia Power, or any utility employer, nor with S&P Dow Jones Indices, the Federal Reserve System, or the Congressional Budget Office.