Insights

Independent thinking for uncertain markets.

Essays on valuation, market cycles, monetary policy, gold, concentration risk, and retirement — written to look beneath the headlines and ask what matters next.

THE LATEST THINKING

Read what I’m watching — and why it matters.

The newest essay appears first. The archive below is intentionally broad: markets, policy, risk, history, and the decisions that matter most when retirement capital has less room for error.

Markets

September 22, 2025

Market Reality Check

Valuations are stretched, Jamie Dimon is warning of a weakening economy, and rising G7 debt is pressuring bond yields. Why the market's precarious state calls for a reality check, not complacency.

Markets

September 16, 2025

When the Market’s “Speculation Show” Outpaces Reality

The Oracle/OpenAI story lays bare the gap between what markets expect and what fundamentals actually support — and why narrative-driven valuations break sharply when the story cracks.

The Fed

September 9, 2025

Free-Market Money

David Stockman's "Free Market Money: The Antidote" argues money has become digital ledger entries — a derivative of central bank policy. What a free market in money and credit would restore.

Markets

September 1, 2025

A Dangerous World and Overpriced Markets

War in Ukraine, conflict in Gaza, and markets priced for perfection. Why protecting capital now — not chasing the cycle — determines who can take advantage when valuations reset.

Policy & Debt

August 25, 2025

Larry Fink and the WEF

Larry Fink runs BlackRock's $9 trillion and co-chairs the World Economic Forum's board. What that concentration of financial and policy influence means for investors — and how to prepare.

Nostalgia, Banana Splits and a Lesson on Inflation

Policy & Debt

August 4, 2025

Nostalgia, Banana Splits and a Lesson on Inflation

An $8 banana split that used to cost a quarter is a lesson in inflation, shrinkflation, and money illusion — and in staying disciplined while purchasing power quietly erodes.

Policy & Debt

July 28, 2025

Three Roads Ahead

Debt spiraling, obligations growing faster than we can pay — America faces three roads: default, devalue, or reform. Why choosing a path deliberately beats having one forced upon us.

Policy & Debt

July 21, 2025

It’ll Take More Than Low Interest Rates

The 10-year yield can fall all it wants — rock-bottom rates alone won't fix housing affordability. Supply constraints, zoning minimums, and land-use regulation are the structural problem.

The Fed

July 18, 2025

How Tariffs Could Prolong Inflation

Atlanta Fed President Raphael Bostic warns that tariff effects arrive slowly, unevenly, and are difficult to reverse — and could keep inflation elevated for months or even years.

Policy & Debt

July 15, 2025

How Governments Quietly Manage Debt

Raise taxes, cut spending, or devalue the currency — when debt outgrows the ability to pay, governments choose quietly. Why currency exposure and hard assets deserve a fresh look.

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