What the Commerce Department Isn’t Telling You

In a world saturated with spin, the government’s latest economic report is another reminder that the truth often lies between the lines. The U.S. Commerce Department just released its second estimate for first-quarter GDP growth—and it’s not the glowing recovery story Wall Street would like you to believe. Real GDP growth was revised up slightly to a sluggish 1.3%, while inflation-adjusted consumer spending actually declined. Let’s be clear: this isn’t growth. It’s stagnation dressed up with decimal points.

Mainstream pundits act like 1.3% growth is a win, but that’s a historically weak number—even by post-COVID standards. To put this in perspective: in a healthy economy, GDP growth of 3-4% is standard. At 1.3%, we’re just treading water, especially when you consider that the government is injecting trillions in deficit spending just to achieve this illusion of forward motion. It’s like watching someone max out ten credit cards and celebrating because their checking account has $1,000 in it.

More disturbing? The foundation of this growth is cracking. Martin Armstrong points out that real final sales to private domestic purchasers—the best gauge of actual demand—came in at just 1.8%, down from 2.8% last quarter. This metric removes the noise of inventories and government spending. Translation? The private sector, the engine of real productivity, is cooling fast. And when that engine slows, layoffs, defaults, and recessions tend to follow.

Meanwhile, government spending—fueled by unsustainable debt—is propping up what little growth remains. The U.S. is adding over $1 trillion in debt every 100 days, with no plan to stop. This isn’t just economic malpractice. It’s national suicide by spreadsheet. As interest rates rise, the cost of servicing this debt skyrockets. That means fewer dollars for real investment, infrastructure, or even Social Security down the road.

The most dangerous part of all this? The Federal Reserve and the political establishment are locked in a delusion. They can’t raise rates much higher without crashing the economy. But if they cut too soon, inflation could explode again. They’re trapped—tighten, and the markets tumble. Loosen, and the dollar burns.

For retirees, business owners, and anyone trying to protect wealth, this is your wake-up call. Traditional 60/40 portfolios are not built for this environment. Blind trust in government data and Wall Street optimism could cost you everything. It’s time to reallocate—to assets that historically perform when the fiat system buckles: precious metals, tactical strategies, hard assets.