A calm interruption
This is what market tops feel like.
Not panic. Not fear. Confidence.
That is what makes them dangerous.
They don’t break when people are worried.
They break when people are comfortable.
Comfort is the easiest thing to mistake for safety.
The emotion before every reset is certainty.
Major resets rarely arrive with a clear warning label. They arrive after a long stretch of reinforcement: “It worked last year. It worked again. It will probably keep working.”
Confidence grows quietly. Standards soften slowly. Risk migrates into places people stop checking.
Resets don’t announce themselves.
The pattern is older than any headline.
This is not a forecast. It is a repeating structure that has existed across centuries of markets.
Expansion
Participation grows. Discipline still exists.
Confidence
Risk feels “managed.” Valuations feel secondary.
Excess
Rules bend. Leverage grows. Certainty becomes loud.
Reset
Liquidity matters. Narratives fail. Reality returns.
A few statements that should be hard to ignore.
If markets were “safe,” they wouldn’t need bailouts.
Preparation is uncomfortable by design.
Most people believe they are prepared until preparation requires being early. And being early always feels lonely.
The true risk is not being wrong. The true risk is being unprepared.
What if the next reset isn’t a surprise… but a test?
A test of positioning. A test of independence. A test of whether your strategy was built for comfort or built for reality.
Some people want to study. Some want to test. Some want to talk. All three are valid starting points.