About Wilder Bailey
We are living through historic financial conditions. Valuations are extended, debt levels are elevated, and policy distortions have altered the natural rhythm of markets. Most investors sense something is different — even if they cannot fully articulate why.
How I Think About Markets
The challenge is not predicting exact dates. It is recognizing when risk has quietly compounded.
Markets move in cycles. Expansion leads to optimism. Optimism can lead to excess. Excess eventually gives way to correction. And correction, when endured properly, gives way to renewal and recovery.
As a fiduciary, my responsibility is not simply growth. It is stewardship — preserving capital when risk is elevated and positioning intentionally when opportunity returns.
If You’d Like to Explore Further
These pages go deeper into how I evaluate risk, cycles, and positioning.
On Imminent Reset, I outline why I believe we are in a rare multi-constraint environment — where valuations, debt, and policy pressures overlap. It is not a prediction of specific dates, but a structured explanation of why today’s risks may be greater than widely assumed.
On Historic Opportunity, I examine what followed the major resets of 2002, 2009, and 2020. After the 2002 bottom, the Dow and Nasdaq began multi-year advances. Following the March 2009 financial crisis low, equities entered one of the longest sustained bull markets in history. Even the rapid pandemic decline of 2020 was followed by a powerful recovery phase. Severe drawdowns reset valuations, compress excess, and often restore forward return potential. The page explores how disciplined liquidity and preparation allow investors to participate in those recoveries rather than recover from them.
In The Loyalty Liability, I discuss how comfort, habit, or institutional loyalty can quietly increase risk during cycle extremes — and why clarity sometimes requires stepping back to evaluate assumptions.
Questions for Any Broker offers a practical checklist investors can use to evaluate positioning, exposure, and process — whether with me or with another advisor.
In Opportunity Mindset, I explore how disciplined thinking during volatility often produces better long-term outcomes than reactive decisions driven by fear or euphoria.
A Clear Conversation
If you are questioning whether your current strategy reflects the cycle we are in — or simply want a second set of eyes on your positioning — I welcome a thoughtful conversation. Not a promise of specific dates. Just clarity about risk, opportunity, and alignment.