Insights

Market Insights

The Federal Reserve, market cycles, gold, concentration risk, and retirement strategy — written for people who want to understand the world as it is, not as we wish it to be.

The Inflation Report Just Sent A Warning

The Fed

May 18, 2026

The Inflation Report Just Sent A Warning

April's CPI was worse than the headline suggested: core, shelter, median, and trimmed-mean measures all accelerated at once, running near a 5 percent annualized pace. The disinflation narrative that guided markets for a year now has visible cracks — and that matters most for households on fixed incomes.

The Fed

May 12, 2026

The Warsh Era Begins

Jerome Powell's term ends May 15, and barring a reversal his successor is Kevin Warsh — the most controversial Fed nominee in modern memory. Whatever the politics, the inheritance is the story: stubborn inflation, a softening labor market, a tariff shock, an oil shock, and an institution under unprecedented pressure.

The Fed

April 29, 2026

The Hold That Wasn’t Quiet

The Fed held rates at 3.50–3.75% for a third straight meeting — but the boring headline hid a four-vote dissent in both directions, Middle East energy prices written into the official statement, and a chair transition unlike any since 1948. The path ahead is openly contested.

Markets

April 27, 2026

When The Door Slams Shut

Charles Hughes Smith's blunt "Sell Now" essay gets the headline wrong but the mechanic right: in a real downturn, the exit door closes much faster than most people believe possible. What retirees should take from it — and where the advice goes too far.

Retirement

April 21, 2026

The IMF and Your Money

The IMF cut its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.1% and raised projected inflation to 4.4% — with a Fed frozen in place. For utility employees and retirees, the implications for pensions, withdrawal rates, and concentrated company stock are concrete and immediate.

Markets

April 15, 2026

The Oil Everyone Wants

Iranian crude is among the most refiner-friendly grades in the world, and roughly 90% of it now flows to China through a professionalized shadow fleet. Why the oil keeps moving despite sanctions — and why a war involving Iran raises gas prices in Georgia anyway.

Markets

April 7, 2026

The Hormuz Shock

The Strait of Hormuz carries 20–30% of all internationally traded fertilizer, and its closure is hitting American farmers at planting time — urea up 77% since mid-December. The consequence for most families won't arrive at the gas pump, but at the grocery store.

The Fed

March 31, 2026

When the Fed Chair Stops Pretending

At his March 18 press conference, Jerome Powell acknowledged effectively zero net private-sector job creation over the past six months — a "zero employment growth equilibrium." When the Fed chair confirms what the revisions have been showing, that is not a footnote. It is a signal.

Policy & Debt

March 23, 2026

The Debt Ceiling Nobody Talks About

Americans have responded to relentless price pressure by borrowing — record credit card balances, buy-now-pay-later debt on groceries and utility bills. When the heavily indebted consumer finally hits the ceiling of what they can service, spending stops fast, and markets are dangerously underestimating it.